"Commodity Complex": Oil, Gold, Copper Point to Weaker Economy, Roque Says

Generally speaking, commodities have been rallying since 2002 and many
investors are betting on continued gains as demand grows globally and
the dollar weakens. That long-term outlook remains intact but “the
commodity complex is acting poorly here,” says John Roque, technical
analyst at WJB Capital Group, who makes the following observations in
the accompanying clip:

* — After rallying above $80 in late 2009 and again in early 2010,
oil appeared poised to make a run at $90, if not triple digits. It’s
failure to “continue that breakout” and subsequent sharp pullback is a
warning sign, Roque says. “It wouldn’t surprise us to see oil back at
$60,” if support at $70 breaks.
* — A longtime bull on gold, Roque turned short-term cautious in
early December, shortly after the metal peaked at $1227 per ounce. The
technician says gold will likely stabilize around $1000 per ounce but
has “no base” to sustain a rally from current levels.
* — Weakness prior to Tuesday’s rally suggests copper could test $3
per pound, Roque says. “And if copper does have an economics
degree…its weakness is also a concern” for the broader economy.
The recent action in copper, oil and base metals such as zinc and lead
— plus strength in Treasury prices — “would suggest economies are
likely to weaken here, not strengthen,” Roque says.


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