Archive for the ‘Gold’ Category


>below are some excerpts from Jim Rogers interview:

Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs

Chinese economy:

There is some overheating and inflation

setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way

China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.

Europe:

I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt.

Following is an interview that The Daily Bell had with Jim Rogers:

Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs
05 April 2011 | http://www.commodityonline.com

Daily Bell: We've interviewed you before. Thanks for spending some time with us once again. Let's jump right in. What do you think of the Chinese economy these days?

Jim Rogers: There is some overheating and inflation, which they are wisely trying to cool – especially in urban, coastal real estate. They have huge reserves so will suffer less than others in any coming downturn.

Daily Bell: Is price inflation more or less of a problem?

Jim Rogers: More. At least they acknowledge inflation and are attacking it. Some countries still try denying there is inflation worldwide. The US is even pouring gasoline on these inflationary trends with more money printing instead of trying to extinguish the problem.

Daily Bell: Is China headed for a setback as you suggested last time we spoke?

Jim Rogers: Did I say a setback or a setback in real estate speculation? I think you will find it was the latter. Yes, the setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way.

Daily Bell: They are allowing the yuan to float upward. Good move?

Jim Rogers: Yes, but I would make it freely convertible faster than they are.

Daily Bell: Will that squeeze price inflation?

Jim Rogers: It will help.

Daily Bell: Why so many empty cities and malls in China? Does the government have plans to move rural folk into cities en masse?

Jim Rogers: That is a bit exaggerated. China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.

Daily Bell: Is such centralized planning good for the economy?

Jim Rogers: No. Centralized planning is rarely, if ever, good for the economy. But the kind of construction you are describing is at the provincial level – not the national level.

Daily Bell: The Chinese government is worried about unrest given what is occurring in the Middle East. Should they be?

Jim Rogers: We all should be. There is going to be more social unrest worldwide including the US. More governments will fall. More countries will fail.

Daily Bell: Are they still on track to be the world's biggest economy over the next decade?

Jim Rogers: Perhaps not that soon, but eventually.

Daily Bell: Any thoughts on Japan? Why haven't they been able to get the economy moving after 30 years? Will the earthquake finally jump-start the economy or is that an erroneous application of the broken-windows fallacy?

Jim Rogers: It has been 20 years. They refused to let people fail and go bankrupt. They constantly propped up zombie companies. The earthquake will help some sectors for a while, but there are serious demographic and debt problems down the road.

Daily Bell: The Japanese were going to buy PIGS bonds. What will happen now? Does that only leave China?

Jim Rogers: Obviously the Japanese have other things on their mind right now. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt. The thing that the world needs is for somebody to acknowledge reality and start taking haircuts.

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Welcome to the Mania!
Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research
With gold punching the $1,300 mark, thoughts of what a gold mania will be like crossed my mind. If we’re right about the future of precious metals, a gold rush of historic proportions lies ahead of us. Have you thought about how a mania might affect you? Not like this, you haven’t…

You log on to your brokerage account for the third time that day and see your precious metal portfolio has doubled from last week. Gold and silver stocks have been screaming upward for weeks. Everyone around you is panicking from runaway inflation and desperate to get their hands on any form of gold or silver. It’s exhilarating and frightening in the same breath. Welcome to the mania.

Daily gains of 20% in gold and silver producers become common, even expected. Valuations have been thrown out the window – this is no time for models and charts and analysis. It’s not greed; it’s survival. Get what you can, while you can. Investors clamor to buy any stock with the word “gold” in its title. Fear of being left behind is palpable.

The shares of junior exploration companies have gone ballistic. They double and triple in days, then double and triple again. Many have already risen ten-fold. You have several up 10,000%. No end is in sight. Your portfolio swells bigger every day. Your life is changing right in front of you at warp speed.

Every business program touts the latest hot gold or silver stock. It’s all they can talk about. Headlines blare anything about precious metals, no matter how trivial. Weekly news magazines and talk-radio hosts dispense free stock picks. CNBC and Bloomberg battle to be first with the latest news. Each tick in the price of gold and silver flashes on screen, and interruptions offering the latest prediction seem to happen every fifteen minutes. Breathy reporters yell above the noise on the trade floor about insane volume, and computers that can’t keep up. Entire programs are devoted to predicting the next winner. You watch to see if some of your stocks are named. You can’t help it.

The only thing growing faster than your portfolio is the number of new “gold experts.” It’s a bull market in bull.

You can feel the crazed mass psychology all around you. Your co-workers know you bought gold some time ago and pepper you with questions seemingly every hour, interrupting your work. They ask if you heard about the latest pick from Fox Business. They want to know where you buy gold, who has the best price, and, by the way, how do I know if my gold is real? They all look at you differently now. Women smile at you in the hallway. You worry someone may follow you home.

Your relatives once teased you but now hound you with questions at family get-togethers – what stocks do you own? What’s that gold newsletter telling you? Where can I keep my bullion? You don’t want to be the life of the party, but they force it – it’s all anyone wants to talk about. Your brother tells you he dumped his broker and is trading full-time. Another relative shoves his account statement in front of you and wants advice. You sense someone will ask for a loan. You don’t know what to tell people. The attention is discomforting, and you feel the urge to escape.

At first it was exciting, then breathtaking. Now it’s scary. You’re drowning in obscene profits but are becoming increasingly anxious about how long it can last. Worry replaces excitement. You don’t know if you should sell or hold on. Nobody knows what to do. But the next day, your portfolio screams higher and you feel overwhelmed once again.

You grab the local paper and read the town’s bullion shop had a break-in last night. They hired a security company and have posted several guards outside and inside the store. Premiums have skyrocketed, but lines still form every day. The proprietor hands out tickets when locals arrive: your number will be called when it’s your turn… the wait will be long… please have your order ready… yesterday we ran out of stock at 11am.

You begin to worry about the security of your own stash of bullion – those clever hiding spots don’t feel quite as secure as you first thought they’d be. Is the bank safe deposit box really secure? Shouldn’t they hire a security guard? Should I move some of it elsewhere? Is there anywhere truly safe? You find yourself checking gun prices online.

And it’s all happening because the dollar is crashing and inflation has scourged every part of life. You curse at those who said this couldn’t happen and mock past assurances from government. Cash is a hot potato, and spending it before it loses more purchasing power is a daily priority. Everyone is clamoring to get something that can’t lose value, but mostly gold and silver.

Your wife calls and says the $100 you gave her that morning isn’t enough to buy groceries for dinner. Prices change often on everything. She urges you to get some bread and milk before the stores raises the price again. You suddenly remember you’re low on gas and make plans to leave work early to beat others to the filling station. Restaurants and small businesses post prices on a chalkboard and update them throughout the day. Employers scramble to work out an “inflation adjustment” for salaries. 

On your way home, the radio broadcaster reports the government has convened an emergency summit of all heads of state. They’re working urgently on the problem, and all other agendas have been tabled. Outside experts have been called in. We’re going to solve this rampant flood of inflation for the American people, they say. In your gut you know there’s nothing they can do.

You change the channel and hear about the spike in arrests of U.S. citizens at the Canadian border. Scads of people are caught trying to sneak bullion and stock certificates out of the country – from airports to rail stations. Violence at borders has escalated, and stories of bloodshed are getting common. The White House ordered heightened security at all U.S. borders, with the media reporting it can take days to cross. Foreign governments offer meaningless help, others mock U.S. leaders for their shortsightedness. Their countries are suffering, too.

You think about the gains in your portfolio and wince at the taxes you’ll pay when you sell. Nothing has been indexed to inflation, so everyone has been pushed into higher tax brackets. Citizens are furious with government. Agencies have been swarmed with bitter taxpayers and revolting benefit recipients. One government office was set on fire. A riot erupted in Washington, D.C. last week and martial law was temporarily declared. It’s too dangerous to travel anywhere.

As crazy as things are, it’s hard not to smile. You’re in the middle of a mania. Your life has changed permanently. You’re part of the new rich. You can quit work, live off your investments. Your wife is ecstatic, and you both feel as if it’s your second honeymoon. Your kids are amazed and gaze at you with the same awe they did when they were children.

You’re thankful you bought gold and silver before the mania, along with precious metal stocks. You daydream of where you might go, what you might buy. New options open up daily. You realize you’ll need to meet with your accountant, maybe hire a second one to protect your sudden wealth. You wonder what you’ll invest in next. You ponder what charities are worthwhile. Better meet with the attorney to redraft the will.

As night settles and your house quiets, you log on to your brokerage account one last time. Even though you’re ready for it, your mouth drops when you see your account balance. It is truly overwhelming. You think of others who own gold and silver stocks and wonder if any have sold yet. Has Doug Casey exited?

You stare at the blinking screen, hand on the mouse, the cursor hovering on the sell button…

View article…


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Friday Look Ahead: Tech a Focus for Stocks Friday, as Gold Dazzles Investors

Published: Thursday, 16 Sep 2010 | 9:10 PM E
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
Some good news from the tech sector could be a positive for stocks Friday.

Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.
Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.

Both Oracle and Research in Motion reported strong earnings after Thursday’s bell. Separately, Texas Instruments boosted its $0.12 dividend by a penny and said it would buy back another $7.5 billion shares. All three stocks were higher in after-hours trading.

Stocks Friday morning could feel the effect of the quadruple expiration of futures and options. Traders expect the expiration to be low key at the open, and if anything, the impact should be slightly positive.
CPI, at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show a 0.3 percent increase in August consumer prices. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to a reading of 70, from 68.9 last month, but economists say the strong performance of the stock market this month could push that number a bit higher. August’s sentiment reading was the second lowest of the year. Consumer sentiment is released at 9:55 a.m.
Stocks drifted on both sides of the unchanged mark Thursday. The Dow ended up 22 at 10,594, and the S&P 500 was off less than a half point at 1124.  The dollar weakened against the euro, and dollar/yen was barely changed after the Bank of Japan intervened to curb the yen’s rise Wednesday.
“This intervention might have higher chances of succeeding, assuming we continue to see relatively acceptable U.S. economic data. That’s the critical thing,” said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. “…as long as the idea of double dip keeps receding, Treasury yields should stabilize and go back up and that will be critical to dollar/yen.”
On the other hand, if we see the 10-year yield move to 2.5 percent, or dip below 2.5 percent, I don’t think any amount of money will stem the (dollar) decline,” he said.
Barry Knapp, chief equities portfolio strategist at Barclay’s, said the initial stock market reaction after a big intervention is often a short-term decline. “For the first couple of days, the market goes down a little bit..the first reaction is to look at the dollar,” he said.
The view is “if the dollar is going up, that’s bad for earnings, so sell it. Dollar’s going down, that’s good. That’s a very simplistic approach. I don’t think it’s right at all,” he said. “If you look back at 2003, when the Japanese were intervening dramatically, the initial reaction was that the stock market sold off, and then it regained its footing.”
Knapp said the intervention at that time was about $360 billion, and he estimated this round could total $250 billion. The BOJ was reported to have bought more than $20 billion Wednesday.
“If somebody puts $250 billion into the markets, event though that money won’t be buying riskier assets, it can trigger an effect,” he said.
The impact on Treasurys could also be noticeable, he said. Traders have been speculating the Japanese will park their dollar holdings in shorter duration Treasurys. “Initially the Treasury curve steepens, but then that tends to drive investors who were in 2s and 5s to extend out the curve and it starts to flatten. Then it triggers a whole position rebalancing.”
All that Glitters
Gold continued to dazzle investors Thursday, scoring its second record settlement of the week. Investors are betting it could try to break the $1,300 level, maybe even as early as next week depending on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting Tuesday.  Gold Thursday rose about a half percent to settle at $1273.80.
Gold has faced some high-profile criticism this week, including from investor George Soros who called it a bubble. “If you think about a world where every major country is trying to find a way to devalue its currency, gold looks pretty good in that environment. Personally I think the dollar is going down more. There’s lots of reasons why gold will continue to rise. I don’t know if I’d buy it, but I know I wouldn’t short it,” Knapp said.

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/39223276


In Peru back in 2008, junior miners – those companies who rely largely on capital markets for finance – proved to be the canaries down their own mines who warned of the credit crunch.
Juniors had flooded into the market to join a frenzy of exploration, attracted by a heady mix of soaring commodity prices, cheap credit, China-like rates of economic growth and Alan Garcia’s pro-investment policies. But, true to hot money form, they had already begun a rapid exit by the time Lehman Brothers fell and the commodities boom ended.
Now juniors are coming back, in a more orderly fashion.
They have been attracted, in part, by Peru’s economic recovery: GDP growth has hit double figures in recent months, and is forecast to be as high as 8 per cent for 2010 as a whole.
Credit is also attainable once more. Gonzalo de Rosa, junior-mining analyst at Banco de Credito, told beyondbrics:

As the crisis passes, [juniors] have been more actively getting more credit facilities; they can do private placements. I don’t think that’s going to be an issue for them in the next few years.
As prices begin to present a positive trend they’re going to be gain more appreciation in the market.

Some juniors have a headstart now, with social and environmental impact assessments approved before the downturn. Yet the increase in junior investment is not as steep as it was two years ago.
Alonso Segura, chief economist at Banco de Credito, points out the juniors’ challenge:

One thing is betting on the sovereigns of an investment grade country which is a star performer in the region, a medium-sized economy, or buying bonds of a very well rated company – a very different issue is buying bonds of a junior company, which is basically going to a casino.

Casinos or not, junior miners are certainly back in vogue

Peru: junior miners are back | beyondbrics | FT.com

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World Gold Council Report ( WGC)

WGC-  China’s gold investment demand grew by 121% in 2Q- Central Banks buy more gold-

CONCLUSION: the WGC just reported its 2Q report ( see attached). Three key things:

 

1- ONE OF THE KEY NEW TRENDS IS CHINA WHERE RETAIL INVESTMENT DEMAND JUMPED BY 121% ( SEE PAGE 11). We continue to believe that deregulation of the gold market in China could OPEN a major new market for gold.

 

2- ANOTHER INTERESTING TREND IS THAT INDUSTRIAL DEMAND FOR GOLD CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BY 14% MAINLY DRIVEN BY ELECTRONICS UP 25% ( see page 10).

 

3- CENTRAL BANKS WERE NET PURCHASERS OF 7 TONNES OF GOLD DESPITE THE IMF SALE OF 47 TONNES DURING THE QUARTER. RUSSIA WAS AMONG THE LARGEST BUYERS ( 34 TONNES). The philippines also bought more gold.

 

Gold Demand Trends for Q2 2010 out (see Enclosed file), and WGC press release below>

  

 

INVESTMENT DEMAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROBUST GOLD MARKET DURING 2010

 

Demand for gold will remain robust during 2010 as a result of accelerating demand from India and China, as well as increasing global investment demand driven by continuing uncertainty over public debt and economic recovery, the World Gold Council (“WGC”) said.

According to the WGC’s Gold Demand Trends report for Q2 2010, published today, demand for gold for the rest of 2010 will be underpinned by the following market forces:

* India and China will continue to provide the main thrust of overall growth in demand, particularly for gold jewellery, for the remainder of 2010.

* Retail investment will continue to be a substantial source of gold demand in Europe.

* Over the longer-term, demand for gold in China is expected to grow considerably. A report recently published by The People’s Bank of China and five other organisations to foster the development of the domestic gold market will add impetus to the growth in gold ownership among Chinese consumers.

* Electronics demand is likely to return to higher historic levels after the sector exhibited further signs of recovery, especially in the US and Japan.

 

Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment at the WGC commented:

“Economic uncertainties and the ongoing search for less volatile and more diversified assets such as gold will underpin investment demand for gold in the immediate future. Further, in light of lingering concerns over public debt levels and the euro, European retail investor demand has increased significantly.

“Over the past quarter, demand for gold jewellery in key Asian markets has been challenged by rising local prices. Nevertheless, we are seeing a deceleration in the pace of decline in demand, providing a strong outlook for ongoing recovery in this crucial market segment.”

 

 

GLOBAL DEMAND STATISTICS FOR Q2 2010

* Total gold demand1 in Q2 2010 rose by 36% to 1,050 tonnes, largely reflecting strong gold investment demand compared to the second quarter of 2009. In US$ value terms, demand increased 77% to $40.4 billion.

* Investment demand2 was the strongest performing segment during the second quarter, posting a rise of 118% to 534.4 tonnes compared with 245.4 tonnes in Q2 2009.

* The largest contribution to this rise came from the ETF segment of investment demand, which grew by 414% to 291.3 tonnes, the second highest quarter on * Physical gold bar demand, which largely covers the non-western markets, rose 29% from Q2 2009 to 96.3 tonnes.

 

 



Rogers Says World Needs Higher Interest Rates, Commodities Set to Advance

China and other global economies should increase interest rates to contain a surge in inflation, said investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.
“Everyone should be raising interest rates, they are too low worldwide,” Rogers said in a phone interview from Singapore. “If the world economy gets better, that’s good for commodities demand. If the world economy does not get better, stocks are going to lose a lot as governments will print more money.”
China’s central bank hasn’t increased rates since November 2007. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve this month left the overnight interbank lending rate target in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it’s been since December 2008, while the European Central Bank has kept its key interest rate at a record low of 1 percent.
Policy makers in Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand have increased the cost of borrowing at least once this year, while India has boosted rates four times in five months.
The global economy is at the risk of prolonging a recession after reports over the past two days showed U.S. home sales plunged by a record and Japan’s export growth slowed for a fifth month in July, he said.
“We never got out of the first recession,” Rogers said. “If the U.S. and Europe continue to slow down, that’s going to affect everyone. The Chinese economy is 1/10 of the U.S. and Europe and India is a quarter of China, they can’t bail us out.”
Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999, said he was short emerging markets and stocks and long on commodities.
“Commodities will go above their old high sometime in the next decade even if they only grow 5 to 6 percent annually,” said Rogers, who is a consultant for the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Rogers said he would resume buying China’s stocks if they were to tumble as they did during the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008, when they plunged 65 percent. “I haven’t bought since the fall of 2008,” he said. “It it were to happen again, I hope that I’m smart enough to buy again.”
Allen Wan. With assistance from Chua Kong Ho. Editors: Richard Frost, Linus Chua
To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story: Allen Wan in Shanghai at awan3@bloomberg.net

Rogers Says World Needs Higher Interest Rates, Commodities Set to Advance – Bloomberg

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Speculators Hike Net-Long Positions In Gold

23 August 2010, 11:27 a.m.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

Chicago — (Kitco News) — Investor interest in gold jumped as prices held and advanced over $1,200 an ounce as safe-haven buying resumed.
According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the weekly commitment of traders showed speculators added to long gold futures positions in the week ending Aug. 17.
Looking at the disaggregated futures and options combined data, the managed-money accounts added 16,233 longs are now net-long 182,276 contracts, the largest net-long for them since the week of July 13, when their net-long positions totaled 187,077. The peak for the year 2010 to date was 230,422 on May 18.
Similarly, in the legacy futures and options report, funds added 19, 557 contracts to make them net-long 226,964.
Commercials and swap dealers in the disaggregated reports added to their net-shorts, with the producer category increasing shorts by 10,271 contracts to make them net-short 172,129. Swap dealers hiked their short contracts by 11,878 to be net-short 100,750 contracts. Commercials in the legacy futures and options report raised 25,854 short contracts and are now net-short 272,879.
During the timeframe the report covers, Aug. 10 to Aug. 17, gold prices on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rallied $30 an ounce for the December contract. A trigger for the rally was holding over $1,200 an ounce. Prices started at $1,198, which was the settlement on Aug. 10 and settled at $1,228.30 on Aug. 17, and prices continued to rise that week.
“This shows that financial investors have been a major force in this recent rally of gold prices. In the reporting week up to last Tuesday, prices advanced by 4%,” said Commerzbank in a research report on Monday.
Barclays Capital said in a research report Monday, using the legacy futures-only data, that the rise in fund longs was the largest one week rise on a net basis since late April.
The rally came on disappointing economic news, which spurred safe-haven buying of gold, as market participants worry about a double-dip recession. Traders also note, though, that volumes during the reporting period were light because of summer holidays.
In addition to investment buying, Commerzbank said physical interest could support prices, noting Tuesday starts the festival season in India, when gold is traditionally given as gifts. They also cited central bank buying, with Russia increasing its gold reserves by more than 15 tons in July to just under 725 tons, according to its central bank. “Although the rise in holdings is likely to have come from the country’s own production, this absent supply will contribute to a tighter gold market,” Commerzbank said.

In other precious metals data, there was little significant change in speculative holdings for silver, platinum and palladium.

Managed-money accounts in silver added 29 long contracts, but cut 144 short contracts and are now net-long 28,429 contracts. Swap dealers are net-short 1,916 contracts, having added 692 shorts and cut 117 longs. Producers are net-short 52,773 contracts.
In platinum, speculators trimmed slightly their net-longs by 299 contracts and added 97 shorts and are now net-long 16,103 contracts. Swap dealers cut shorts by 649 contracts and added 151 longs, making them net-short 6,599 contracts. Producers are net-short 12,804 contracts.
The managed-money accounts added modestly to net-longs in palladium, increasing longs by 326 contracts to be net-long 10,230 contracts. Producers remain net-short 9,802 contracts in palladium and swap dealers are net-short 4,400 contracts.
The data for copper shows managed-money accounts added to long positions, but increased their short positions by a greater amount. These accounts added 1,025 long contracts and 2,603 short positions, remaining net-long 19,180 contracts. Swap dealers and commercials remain net-short, at 44,550 and 56,432 contracts, respectively.
During the time period, most-active September copper rose 2.6 cents a pound, so the swift price drop copper suffered toward the end of last week over global economic health was not included. From Tuesday’s settlement to Friday’s settlement, September copper prices fell 4.75 cents to $3.2910.
Commerzbank said because of this: “net long positions have probably continued to fall since then. The still relatively high positions also hide a risk of new price corrections should market sentiment deteriorate further.”
By Debbie Carlson, of Kitco News;dcarlson@kitco.com; Allen Sykora contributed to this story.

Kitco News

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