Posts Tagged ‘Banks’
On Tomorrow’s Secret Meeting To Plot The End Of High Frequency Trading
The SEC’s “definitive”(ly worthless) report on what happened on May 6th was a dud, and was nothing more than a distraction-based smear campaign against Waddell and Reed (an experiment in which we can only hope W&R participated involuntarily): a firm which did something that was completely in its right to do. But is this unexpected? After all had the SEC confirmed that it is indeed HFT who is responsible for a broken market structure, it would have effectively destroyed itself: if and when the SEC does indeed confirm that the entire market topology over the past 5 years has been hijacked by young and pustular math Ph.D.’s with fast computers, the implications to fair markets would be orders of magnitude worse than the fallout associated with the Madoff scandal, and could serve as grounds for the unwind of the SEC itself, which would have to explain why it has been avoiding calls against HFT impropriety for years. So in a sense Mary Schapiro’s conclusion is nothing less than a lass desperate act of self preservation. Which however means nothing in the grand scheme of things. Tomorrow, as the WSJ reported a week ago, the Investment Company Institute, better known to Zero Hedge readers as the guys who track the now permanent weekly outflows from capital markets, is holding a secret meeting in which some of the participants “are determined to push for a plan to restrict high-frequency trading” (furthermore, the ICI was rather pissed about this particular leak, implying that things are really serious). While the SEC may have declared a market structure truce, and is peddling its usual worthless solution of circuit breakers (more on this below), actual market participants have had enough of seeing their profits plunge and seeing HFT extract more capital out of the market than the much maligned ten years ago market makers and specialists ever did.
Read the rest of the story here:
Artist’s Rendering Of Larry Summers’ LinkedIn Profile
Second Leg of Crisis Beginning: Hedge Fund Manager
“We are seeing one of the most challenging years for investors ever,” De Noronha told CNBC Tuesday. “Major investors are simply leaving the market. When it looks like markets are about to fall off the cliff they rally and vice versa.
“The regulators used 6 percent as the threshold for defining the minimum capital ratios, but that 6 percent number includes non-cash assets such as deferred tax assets and goodwill,” he said. “If you use only tangible book equity the 6 percent of the biggest offenders turns into closer to 2 percent which implies a leverage ratio of 50 times. That is hardly conservative for current the current economic reality.”
>Oh, poor “Demonized Algos” !!!
Demonised ‘algos’ push the surge in FX trading
By Jennifer Hughes, Senior Markets Correspondent
Published: September 1 2010 00:04 | Last updated: September 1 2010 00:04
So far, however, attention has focused on the role of these high-speed traders in the equity market. Outside the glare of that publicity, it is less well known that on May 7, FX trading volumes reached records, straining the plumbing of these markets.
Some participants argue these strains were partially caused by algorithmic, or algo, traders.
Exactly how much of this can be attributed to algo trading is unclear. However, there is no question that high-frequency traders are a fast-increasing force in FX markets, which is sparking a fierce debate as to their value to the market.
On Tuesday, the Bank for International Settlements reported that average daily turnover in the FX market has jumped 20 per cent in the past three years to $4,000bn a day. Its survey was taken in April, so missed the May spike, which related to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
The BIS-reported gains were led by a near 50 per cent leap in spot trading – deals for immediate delivery – to $1,500bn a day. This jump was powered by increased activity from “other financial institutions”, a group that includes hedge funds, pension funds, some banks, mutual funds, insurance companies and central banks. This will also include algos.
While all categories of “other” could have increased their trading, it is likely a significant proportion was driven by algo traders, who favour the deep, liquid spot markets and particularly currency pairs such as eurodollar and dollar-yen, which between them account for 42 per cent of all currency trading.
The question for the FX market is whether high-frequency dealers improve the market by adding liquidity, or whether they are instead merely price takers who contribute little.
“Algos have been demonised, but they’re an important part of the growth story,” says David Rutter chief executive of Icap Electronic Broking, which runs EBS, the main FX interbank trading platform. “What we’ve found is that they add pressure at each price point so that instead of getting big price gaps on shocking news, trade is more orderly.
“With FX, there are a lot of other flows such as global trade, so there is good underlying liquidity that the algos can enhance.”
Algos initially appeared in FX markets almost a decade ago, attracted by the deep liquidity and increasing use of electronic trading. They were generally welcomed, particularly by banks looking to build their prime brokerage businesses. However many banks soon grew disenchanted when they found the fast-moving shops were profiting from banks’ own slow systems by exploiting brief, tiny price differences between rival platforms.
Some banks went as far as ejecting offenders from their platforms but banks’ views have since become more nuanced. They have generally reached an accommodation, helped by technological improvements which make it easier to monitor client dealings and offer client-specific prices.
“The facts are that algos have made the markets more efficient and have helped ensure there’s one virtual price,” says Jeff Feig, global head of G10 FX at Citigroup. “They do cause banks to be smarter and we’ve had to work harder to be more efficient, but that’s ultimately to the advantage of the end user.
“I think that to some extent, algos have pushed banks and the result has been enhanced transparency and increased liquidity.”
Algos mean many different things in the FX market. While high-frequency traders are the best known – typified by one senior banker as “five smart guys in a room in New Jersey,” – banks are increasingly adept at developing their own algorithms to make their internal FX deals more efficient. These “internalisation” trades too will have provided a boost to the BIS numbers.
Most players say algos are now a fact of life in currency markets.
Unlike the equity market, which is split into hundreds of stocks, they believe the FX world’s focus on a relatively small number of currency pairs means it would be far harder for a single group of participants to move the market significantly, intentionally or otherwise, as some watchers fear happened during the “flash crash”.
“Also trading can happen anywhere there’s an electronic execution system and a volatile market,” says Alan Bozian a former FX banker and now chief executive of CLS Bank, the FX settlement system. “The question is, which markets adapt well and I don’t think it’s necessarily the stock market.”
FX markets have proved generally good at adapting. Systems such as CLS, introduced years before the financial crisis, have helped minimise settlement risk and since May, participants have been working again to improve their processing systems to cope with increased volume.
Significantly, for a market that is very much built around a hub of big banks, the BIS report showed that, for the first time, interaction of the main banks with “other” financial institutions overtook trading between themselves.
This could be a pointer to the market of the future, where banks are likely to remain the hub, but as much for their trade processing abilities as for their liquidity.
This would allow the winners to build profitable volume without taking on huge trading risks – suiting the current regulatory mood.
“The banks want to continue being the price providers, but they’re getting much more interested in the infrastructure and improving that,” says Mr Bozian. This evolution is likely to apply to high-frequency trading too.
Mr Rutter believes algos are only in their “late teens” in terms of development. “The early algo trading was about super-fast dealing and chasing inefficiencies. That’s largely gone,” he says.
“Now its about math and science being thrown at the market – there’s a rich pool of data and I think we’ll see algos evolve so its not just about milliseconds, but about longer-term predictive math.”
Richard Russell’s Daily Letter
Headline from the Weekend Investor section of the August 7 Wall Street Journal: “How To Beat Deflation. Strategies to Protect Your Portfolio From and Take Advantage of the — Dreaded ‘D’ word.”
The specter of deflation is cropping up in many media outlets today. In fact, I’d say that deflation talk has almost become popular. The key question is this — Fed Chief Bernanke is obviously reading and hearing all about the “coming deflation.” What will Bernanke do about it? I think he will fight deflation with all the weapons at his command. And Bennie has a lot of weapons, least of which is printing “money.”
The air is filled with rumors and contrary opinions, so many that it is literally impossible to follow them all. Some of the opinions and views have such earth-shaking implications that it’s difficult to ignore them. But as my subscribers know, we’re not a news site, and we don’t invest or divest based on the news of the day.
A few examples — I just finished my friend, John Mauldin’s always excellent column (how does he travel continuously and write the column?). Rather than paraphrase what John is writing, I’m including an actual segment from John’s latest column —“Main Street may be about to get its own gigantic bailout. Rumors are running wild from Washington to Wall Street that the Obama administration is about to order government-controlled lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to forgive a portion of the mortgage debt of millions of Americans who owe more than what their homes are worth. An estimated 15 million U.S. mortgages are implicated.”
Russell Comment. Would Obama actually do this? My answer is that Obama and his buddies are so frantic to get the economy moving again that they would be willing to try anything.
Beyond mortgages, Americans are so loaded with debt that maybe the next Obama step would be to forgive ALL personal debts in the US. Better still, why not return to the year of Jubilee and cancel out ALL world debts (I don’t think holders of US Treasuries would go for that one).
The current issue of Barron’s is fascinating. The inimitable Alan Abelson notes that stocks are not cheap. Alan asks, “Where is it written that a market that in a not too distant-past values stocks at 60 time earnings, can’t value them, if the outlook sours, at six to eight times earnings?”
Russell Comment — Yes, I have noted that the big booster in bull markets and the big killer in bear market is the change in price/earning ratios, rather than the actual change in earnings.
But here’s what I really want to talk about. From the cover page of Barron’s — “Why the Fed Will Soon Print $2 Trillion.” The related major article is entitled, “Time to Print, Print, Print,” and is written by Jonathan R. Laing. The author believes that the Fed has only one way to go, “Quantitative easing,” and maybe printing another $2 trillion of fed notes (dollars). Laing concludes, “so it’s more than likely that the big artillery of quantitative easing will be unleashed to push the economy out of its despond. It’s high time to get out the money-printing machines. Damn the risks of triggering a bit of inflation and some modest investment bubbles. The alternatives are far worse.”
Then (believe it or not) in the same issue of Barron’s we see an article by my old friend, Robert Prechter, the guru of the Elliott Wave thesis. Robert explains how a great contraction in credit and debt will bring about deflation. Robert notes that the amount of dollar-denominated debt worldwide is some $57 trillion. . . The already-issued debt and potential debt is poised to overwhelm the possibility of management monetization. The Fed’s assets amount to $2.3 trillion, a drop in the global debt bucket.”
Robert concludes his frightening article as follows — “If you are positioned for more inflation — as the vast majority of investors are — you are likely to find yourself on the wrong side of the monetary bet. Positioning for deflation simply means avoiding traditional investments, especially risky debt, and maintaining maximum safety in cash equivalents, held in the safest institutions. If you shed market and institutional risk, you can sail through deflationary times unscathed.”
Russell Comment — Whew, how’s that for a scary contrary opinion? Robert believes that way to safety in a deflation is to have cash, and lots of it. My concern with this approach is that I question the safety of the US dollar (and all fiat money, for that matter). So in an all-out deflation, Robert Prechter will be sitting in all cash or US Federal Reserve notes. But the dollar is collapsing, and with a US that is deflating, none of our foreign creditors will want dollars (in fact, they will be trying to get rid of dollars). With fiat money in retreat all over the world — and currencies devaluing against each other, the world’s peoples will turn to the only money they can trust — gold. I’m aware that Prechter believes gold will be heading down in a deflation, I disagree.
I was there during the Great Depression, and I can tell you nobody at that time had dollars. But if you did have dollars they were trusted and they were considered as good as gold. Today, it’s different. The very validity of the dollar is in question.
By the way, Prechter believes the Dow will end its bear market at a value of 400. If so, Prechter is looking for a calamity comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Russell response — I distrust all scenarios and predictions, although I read ’em all and find many of them fascinating. In the end, I only trust the wisdom of the stock market. I haven’t liked the recent action of the stock market, and I’ve advised my subscribers to get out of stocks. From our standpoint, when it comes to news events, our main interest is not in the news, but in the stock market’s reaction to the news.
The stock market will tell its story as we go along and in its own good time. Our job is to ignore all opinions and forecasts and to follow the stock market and believe what it’s telling us.
Gold has advanced seven days in a row, and should be ready to back off a bit. The many arguments and rumors regarding gold are almost deafening. I don’t give a damn what the gold bulls or the gold bears say, I follow the price action as best I can. Often, the best test — is what an item can or can’t do. On the latest correction, gold held 1100 — bullish. Can Dec. gold climb into the 1300s, which would be a record high? That’s what I’m waiting to see. By the way, gold may be forming a head-and-shoulders bottom. More technicals — the 200-day moving average for Dec.gold is at 1155.10. The 50-day MA for Dec. gold is at 1215.90, which is bullishly above the 200-day MA. If Dec. gold can close above 1215.90, that would be a bullish development.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets tomorrow. Will they hold interest rates at zero and will they accelerate their printing? If they do, it will put pressure on the dollar and it will be bullish for gold. If they boost interest rates, expect gold to correct.
TODAY’S MARKET ACTION:
My PTI was up 7 at 6117. The moving average at 6095, so my PTI is bullish by 22.
The Dow was up 45.19 to 10698.75.
Transports were up 59.09 at 4516.35.
Utilities were up 1.30 to 395.02.
NASDAQ was up 17.22 to 2305.69.
S&P was up 6.15 to 1127.79.
September crude was up 0.78 at 81.48.
Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.43 bn.
There were 2199 advances and 830 declines on the NYSE.
There were 305 new highs and 15 new lows.
The Big Money Breadth Index was up 4 at 807.
Dollar Index was up 0.26 at 80.67. Euro was down 0.49 at 132.25. Yen was down 0.60 to 116.48. Currency prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.
Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 2.82. Yield on the long T-bond was 4.01. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.14%.
December gold was down 2.70 to 1202.60. September silver was down 0.23 to 18.24.
My Most Active Stocks Index was up 2 to 200.
GDX was up 0.02 to 50.19.
HUI was down 0.22 to 459.72.
CRB Commodity Index was down 0.12 at 274.59.
The VIX was up 0.40 to 22.14.
Late Notes — Dow up 45, Trannies up 59, Utes up almost 2. It’s increasingly more difficult to be bearish on this market when my PTI remains bullish. It was up 7 today to 6117, making my PTI bullish by 22 points. As for the “internals,” well you heard the PTI report. NYSE breadth was good, 2199 issues higher, only 830 down, 305 new highs and 15 new lows. Up volume on the NYSE was an impressive 71% of up + down volume.
Dollar Index was up 0.26 to 80.67. Are there too many bears on the dollar. When the shorts overdo it, you know what happens — the item goes UP. Bonds were slightly lower. Dec. gold was down 2.70 to 1202.60, but still holding above 1200. Tomorrow Bernanke and the gang meet for the Fed Open Market Committee, and everybody is waiting breathlessly to hear what the gang comes up with.
My pen-pal, the one and only Dennis Gartman notes that the M-2 is diving and that the adjusted monetary base has gone nowhere for the last nine months. John Williams reconstructs the broad M-3 money supply and shows that it is diving. So what’s going on — is the Fed playing games with us? Can the market and the economy go up without a rising money supply?
Never mind, we go by the action of the market, and so far, the action has been OK, although a bit ragged.
See you tomorrow, with diamonds hidden in my hair — wait, Faye just cut most of my hair off. I’m walking around with a buzz cut, can this be me?
Expensive stones, most of them over one billion years old.
With the advent of GIA (Gemological Institute of America) certificates, diamonds are becoming a leading safe-haven item. You can send a diamond to the GIA and get a recognized certificate showing the cut, carat, color and clarity of your diamond. Seasoned buyers will not buy a diamond without a GIA “cert.” These certs have finally put diamonds in a different category. You can now buy a diamond a receive (with a cert) a close approximation of what the stone is worth.
India is fast becoming the center of diamond cutting and trading. The best diamonds have come from the Golconda area of India. The Golconda diamonds were “whiter than white.” By the way, the Golconda mines are exhausted. The lower the nitrogen content of a diamond, the whiter the stone is. Golconda diamonds have a nitrogen content of 2% to down to 1%, making them the whitest of all diamonds. Actually, a few other diamonds sport this low nitrogen content, and despite the fact that they don’t come from India, they are still called Golconda diamonds. Only about 1% of all diamonds are classified as Type IIA or Golconda diamonds. These special diamond bring huge prices. For instance, a well-cut internally flawless Type IIA diamond of 5 carats may sell for over one million dollars.
As a rule, white diamonds are judged on their whiteness — the whiter, the better. Colored stones are judged by the depth of their color and the evenness of their color throughout the stone.
Diamonds as a safe haven have one big advantage over gold. Millions of dollars worth of stones can cross a border hidden in a tiny packet or sewed into the lining of your pants. And with the advent of GIA certs, you can be reasonably assured of what they are worth. High-grade stones are so hot today that dealers have been calling retailers and asking them if they have any overage in their diamond inventory. There is almost no bargain diamonds for sale today. The best deals are seen when a professional outfit buys a diamond from a private party, a party that knows nothing about the value of their diamond.
Thus you see ads in the newspapers as follows: “We want your gold and jewelry and particularly your diamonds. Nobody pays higher prices than we do.”
|To all the bulls out there, we have a Wien-er just for you. In an essay that is basically a sequel to last week’s job application in a second-tier position in the administration by a Moody’s strategist and a Princeton economist (yes, yes, we know… oxymorons), the BlackStone head of something, Byron Wien, says the fututre for the market, the economy, and pretty much everything else is brighter than a nuclear bomb (incidentally one going off today would likely send the market into the greatest melt up in history).
Lest there be any confuction what Byron’s view is: “My view is that the economy is going through a temporary lull and business conditions will improve later this year and in 2011.” At least Wien is honest: “In preparing this essay I used research from Goldman Sachs, Lord Abbett, Credit Suisse and International Strategy and Investments for arguments on both sides of the double-dip issue.” Mmhmm – that some serious “both sides” source list. And the piece de resistance: “The factors that argue against a resumption of the recession are the strong liquidity position of corporations which have 6% of their assets in cash, a level not seen since the 1960s, and the fact that both housing and autos are at low levels of production and not likely to drop further.”
Over the weekend we will present an extended analysis finally putting to rest the inane argument that corporations are flush with cash: while true on a gross basis, the net level of cash vs debt, and especially vs equity, is at one of the worst levels in history. This ongoing childish avoidances of the liability side of the corporate balance sheet must stop and someone has to finally shut up these so called sophisticated economists and their endless lies.
Feel free to print out two copies of the attached Wien essay: we hear his work “product” is much better in two ply format.
h/t FMX Connect