Posts Tagged ‘Euro’


>below are some excerpts from Jim Rogers interview:

Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs

Chinese economy:

There is some overheating and inflation

setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way

China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.

Europe:

I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt.

Following is an interview that The Daily Bell had with Jim Rogers:

Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs
05 April 2011 | http://www.commodityonline.com

Daily Bell: We've interviewed you before. Thanks for spending some time with us once again. Let's jump right in. What do you think of the Chinese economy these days?

Jim Rogers: There is some overheating and inflation, which they are wisely trying to cool – especially in urban, coastal real estate. They have huge reserves so will suffer less than others in any coming downturn.

Daily Bell: Is price inflation more or less of a problem?

Jim Rogers: More. At least they acknowledge inflation and are attacking it. Some countries still try denying there is inflation worldwide. The US is even pouring gasoline on these inflationary trends with more money printing instead of trying to extinguish the problem.

Daily Bell: Is China headed for a setback as you suggested last time we spoke?

Jim Rogers: Did I say a setback or a setback in real estate speculation? I think you will find it was the latter. Yes, the setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way.

Daily Bell: They are allowing the yuan to float upward. Good move?

Jim Rogers: Yes, but I would make it freely convertible faster than they are.

Daily Bell: Will that squeeze price inflation?

Jim Rogers: It will help.

Daily Bell: Why so many empty cities and malls in China? Does the government have plans to move rural folk into cities en masse?

Jim Rogers: That is a bit exaggerated. China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.

Daily Bell: Is such centralized planning good for the economy?

Jim Rogers: No. Centralized planning is rarely, if ever, good for the economy. But the kind of construction you are describing is at the provincial level – not the national level.

Daily Bell: The Chinese government is worried about unrest given what is occurring in the Middle East. Should they be?

Jim Rogers: We all should be. There is going to be more social unrest worldwide including the US. More governments will fall. More countries will fail.

Daily Bell: Are they still on track to be the world's biggest economy over the next decade?

Jim Rogers: Perhaps not that soon, but eventually.

Daily Bell: Any thoughts on Japan? Why haven't they been able to get the economy moving after 30 years? Will the earthquake finally jump-start the economy or is that an erroneous application of the broken-windows fallacy?

Jim Rogers: It has been 20 years. They refused to let people fail and go bankrupt. They constantly propped up zombie companies. The earthquake will help some sectors for a while, but there are serious demographic and debt problems down the road.

Daily Bell: The Japanese were going to buy PIGS bonds. What will happen now? Does that only leave China?

Jim Rogers: Obviously the Japanese have other things on their mind right now. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt. The thing that the world needs is for somebody to acknowledge reality and start taking haircuts.

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weOctober 03 2010 7:47 AM GMT
Big Mac index gives more than a taste of true worth

By Steve Johnson

Intervention has kept some emerging market currencies artificially weak, at the same time many have raised interest rates to stem inflation. It is only a matter of time before some allow their currencies to appreciate
Read the full article at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2736d936-cd89-11df-9c82-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss

Sent from my iPad


>

Friday Look Ahead: Tech a Focus for Stocks Friday, as Gold Dazzles Investors

Published: Thursday, 16 Sep 2010 | 9:10 PM E
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
Some good news from the tech sector could be a positive for stocks Friday.

Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.
Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.

Both Oracle and Research in Motion reported strong earnings after Thursday’s bell. Separately, Texas Instruments boosted its $0.12 dividend by a penny and said it would buy back another $7.5 billion shares. All three stocks were higher in after-hours trading.

Stocks Friday morning could feel the effect of the quadruple expiration of futures and options. Traders expect the expiration to be low key at the open, and if anything, the impact should be slightly positive.
CPI, at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show a 0.3 percent increase in August consumer prices. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve slightly to a reading of 70, from 68.9 last month, but economists say the strong performance of the stock market this month could push that number a bit higher. August’s sentiment reading was the second lowest of the year. Consumer sentiment is released at 9:55 a.m.
Stocks drifted on both sides of the unchanged mark Thursday. The Dow ended up 22 at 10,594, and the S&P 500 was off less than a half point at 1124.  The dollar weakened against the euro, and dollar/yen was barely changed after the Bank of Japan intervened to curb the yen’s rise Wednesday.
“This intervention might have higher chances of succeeding, assuming we continue to see relatively acceptable U.S. economic data. That’s the critical thing,” said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. “…as long as the idea of double dip keeps receding, Treasury yields should stabilize and go back up and that will be critical to dollar/yen.”
On the other hand, if we see the 10-year yield move to 2.5 percent, or dip below 2.5 percent, I don’t think any amount of money will stem the (dollar) decline,” he said.
Barry Knapp, chief equities portfolio strategist at Barclay’s, said the initial stock market reaction after a big intervention is often a short-term decline. “For the first couple of days, the market goes down a little bit..the first reaction is to look at the dollar,” he said.
The view is “if the dollar is going up, that’s bad for earnings, so sell it. Dollar’s going down, that’s good. That’s a very simplistic approach. I don’t think it’s right at all,” he said. “If you look back at 2003, when the Japanese were intervening dramatically, the initial reaction was that the stock market sold off, and then it regained its footing.”
Knapp said the intervention at that time was about $360 billion, and he estimated this round could total $250 billion. The BOJ was reported to have bought more than $20 billion Wednesday.
“If somebody puts $250 billion into the markets, event though that money won’t be buying riskier assets, it can trigger an effect,” he said.
The impact on Treasurys could also be noticeable, he said. Traders have been speculating the Japanese will park their dollar holdings in shorter duration Treasurys. “Initially the Treasury curve steepens, but then that tends to drive investors who were in 2s and 5s to extend out the curve and it starts to flatten. Then it triggers a whole position rebalancing.”
All that Glitters
Gold continued to dazzle investors Thursday, scoring its second record settlement of the week. Investors are betting it could try to break the $1,300 level, maybe even as early as next week depending on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting Tuesday.  Gold Thursday rose about a half percent to settle at $1273.80.
Gold has faced some high-profile criticism this week, including from investor George Soros who called it a bubble. “If you think about a world where every major country is trying to find a way to devalue its currency, gold looks pretty good in that environment. Personally I think the dollar is going down more. There’s lots of reasons why gold will continue to rise. I don’t know if I’d buy it, but I know I wouldn’t short it,” Knapp said.

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/39223276


>Oh, poor “Demonized Algos” !!!

Demonised ‘algos’ push the surge in FX trading

By Jennifer Hughes, Senior Markets Correspondent
Published: September 1 2010 00:04 | Last updated: September 1 2010 00:04

Since the infamous stock market “flash crash” of May 6, high-frequency, or algorithmic, trading has been unwillingly dragged into the political and regulatory limelight.
forex-trading-graphicSo far, however, attention has focused on the role of these high-speed traders in the equity market. Outside the glare of that publicity, it is less well known that on May 7, FX trading volumes reached records, straining the plumbing of these markets.
Some participants argue these strains were partially caused by algorithmic, or algo, traders.
Exactly how much of this can be attributed to algo trading is unclear. However, there is no question that high-frequency traders are a fast-increasing force in FX markets, which is sparking a fierce debate as to their value to the market.
On Tuesday, the Bank for International Settlements reported that average daily turnover in the FX market has jumped 20 per cent in the past three years to $4,000bn a day. Its survey was taken in April, so missed the May spike, which related to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
The BIS-reported gains were led by a near 50 per cent leap in spot trading – deals for immediate delivery – to $1,500bn a day. This jump was powered by increased activity from “other financial institutions”, a group that includes hedge funds, pension funds, some banks, mutual funds, insurance companies and central banks. This will also include algos.
While all categories of “other” could have increased their trading, it is likely a significant proportion was driven by algo traders, who favour the deep, liquid spot markets and particularly currency pairs such as eurodollar and dollar-yen, which between them account for 42 per cent of all currency trading.
The question for the FX market is whether high-frequency dealers improve the market by adding liquidity, or whether they are instead merely price takers who contribute little.
“Algos have been demonised, but they’re an important part of the growth story,” says David Rutter chief executive of Icap Electronic Broking, which runs EBS, the main FX interbank trading platform. “What we’ve found is that they add pressure at each price point so that instead of getting big price gaps on shocking news, trade is more orderly.
“With FX, there are a lot of other flows such as global trade, so there is good underlying liquidity that the algos can enhance.”
Algos initially appeared in FX markets almost a decade ago, attracted by the deep liquidity and increasing use of electronic trading. They were generally welcomed, particularly by banks looking to build their prime brokerage businesses. However many banks soon grew disenchanted when they found the fast-moving shops were profiting from banks’ own slow systems by exploiting brief, tiny price differences between rival platforms.
Some banks went as far as ejecting offenders from their platforms but banks’ views have since become more nuanced. They have generally reached an accommodation, helped by technological improvements which make it easier to monitor client dealings and offer client-specific prices.
“The facts are that algos have made the markets more efficient and have helped ensure there’s one virtual price,” says Jeff Feig, global head of G10 FX at Citigroup. “They do cause banks to be smarter and we’ve had to work harder to be more efficient, but that’s ultimately to the advantage of the end user.
“I think that to some extent, algos have pushed banks and the result has been enhanced transparency and increased liquidity.”
Algos mean many different things in the FX market. While high-frequency traders are the best known – typified by one senior banker as “five smart guys in a room in New Jersey,” – banks are increasingly adept at developing their own algorithms to make their internal FX deals more efficient. These “internalisation” trades too will have provided a boost to the BIS numbers.
Most players say algos are now a fact of life in currency markets.
Unlike the equity market, which is split into hundreds of stocks, they believe the FX world’s focus on a relatively small number of currency pairs means it would be far harder for a single group of participants to move the market significantly, intentionally or otherwise, as some watchers fear happened during the “flash crash”.
“Also trading can happen anywhere there’s an electronic execution system and a volatile market,” says Alan Bozian a former FX banker and now chief executive of CLS Bank, the FX settlement system. “The question is, which markets adapt well and I don’t think it’s necessarily the stock market.”
FX markets have proved generally good at adapting. Systems such as CLS, introduced years before the financial crisis, have helped minimise settlement risk and since May, participants have been working again to improve their processing systems to cope with increased volume.
Significantly, for a market that is very much built around a hub of big banks, the BIS report showed that, for the first time, interaction of the main banks with “other” financial institutions overtook trading between themselves.
This could be a pointer to the market of the future, where banks are likely to remain the hub, but as much for their trade processing abilities as for their liquidity.
This would allow the winners to build profitable volume without taking on huge trading risks – suiting the current regulatory mood.
“The banks want to continue being the price providers, but they’re getting much more interested in the infrastructure and improving that,” says Mr Bozian. This evolution is likely to apply to high-frequency trading too.
Mr Rutter believes algos are only in their “late teens” in terms of development. “The early algo trading was about super-fast dealing and chasing inefficiencies. That’s largely gone,” he says.
“Now its about math and science being thrown at the market – there’s a rich pool of data and I think we’ll see algos evolve so its not just about milliseconds, but about longer-term predictive math.”

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FT.com / Currencies – Demonised ‘algos’ push the surge in FX trading

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The MasterFeeds



How Gangsters Are Saving Euro Zone

By STEPHEN FIDLER 

JULY 30, 2010

BRUSSELS BEAT

[brussels_sub]
(Please see Corrections & Amplifications item below.)
Gangsters, drug dealers and money launderers appear to be playing their part in helping shore up the financial stability of the euro zone.
That’s thanks to their demand, according to European authorities, for high-denomination euro bank notes, in particular the €200 and €500 bills. The European Central Bank issues these notes for a hefty profit that is welcome at a time when its response to the financial crisis has called its financial strength into question.
The high-value bills are increasingly “making the euro the currency of choice for underground and black economies, and for all those who value anonymity in their financial transactions and investments,” wrote Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, in a recent research report. The business of issuing euro notes, produced at almost zero cost, is “wildly profitable” for the ECB, Mr. Buiter wrote.
When euro notes and coins went into circulation in January 2002, the value of €500 notes outstanding was €30.8 billion ($40 billion), according to the ECB.
Today some €285 billion worth of such euro notes are in existence, an annual growth rate of 32%. By value, 35% of euro notes in circulation are in the highest denomination, the €500 bill that few people ever see.
In 1998, then-U.S. Treasury official Gary Gensler worried publicly about the competition to the $100 bill, the biggest U.S. bank note, posed by the big euro notes and their likely use by criminals. He pointed out that $1 million in $100 bills weighs 22 pounds; in hypothetical $500 bills, it would weigh just 4.4 pounds.
Police forces have found the big euro notes in cereal boxes, tires and in hidden compartments in trucks, says Soren Pedersen, spokesman for Europol, the European police agency based in The Hague. “Needless to say, this cash is often linked to the illegal drugs trade, which explains the similarity in methods of concealment that are used.”
A spokeswoman for the ECB declined to comment on who uses the bills.
The ECB and its member governments are beneficiaries of the demand.
The profit a central bank gains from issuing currency—as well as from other privileges of a central bank, such as being able to demand no-cost or low-cost deposits from banks—is known as seigniorage. It normally accrues to national treasuries once the central banks account for their own costs.
The ECB’s gains from seigniorage are becoming increasingly important this year.
The ECB has taken hundreds of billions of euros of assets of unknown quality on to its balance sheet as it has reacted to the global financial crisis.
It holds more than €600 billion in collateral from banks to which it has made loans, and more than €400 billion in securities it holds outright, including government bonds.
Overall, the ECB’s balance sheet has grown to almost €2 trillion. It has a capital base of €78 billion. That creates leverage that makes it look like a “hedge fund on steroids,” Mr. Buiter wrote. It wouldn’t need to lose much on these assets to wipe out its thin cushion of capital.
That’s where seigniorage comes in.
In recent years, the profits on its issue of new paper currency have been running at €50 billion. In 2008, the year of the Lehman Brothers crisis, it was €80 billion.
Even with conservative assumptions about future growth of currency in circulation—at, say, 4% a year, which is in line with the ECB’s 2% inflation target plus a margin for economic growth—Mr. Buiter estimates future seigniorage profits for the central bank between €2 trillion and €6.9 trillion.
Thanks to seigniorage, he says, the ECB is “super solvent.”
An ECB spokeswoman says there’s no plan to withdraw high-value notes, national equivalents of which were used in six member states before the euro was launched. They will be retained when a redesigned series is issued in coming years.
Replacing them with small denominations would increase production and processing costs, she says.

Corrections & Amplifications
The volume of €500 notes in circulation is €285 billion, accounting for 35% by value of all euro notes outstanding. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the €285 billion figure represented all euro notes.
There are 570 million €500 bills in circulation. The scale on a chart accompanying an earlier version of this article misrepresented the number as 570,000.
Write to Stephen Fidler at stephen.fidler@wsj.com

The MasterBlog


Subject: All 96 Cent Currencies go to a Dollar
 Bruce Krasting
Looking at the FX screen today you have to conclude: The dollar is weak. Oh the pain. How many big names have stuck their heads out and said that the strong dollar bet was the trade of the year.

It is tempting to look at this and conclude:

“The market got way ahead of itself back in June when the EURDLR broke 1.20. What we are seeing today is slo-mo reversal of all of those long dollar positions that were put on in the first half of the year. On a pure comparison basis it is hard to get excited about buying Euros, it is even less exciting to get long the Yen at these historic levels. Each area has its own set of problems. Anyone who thinks that the EU’s problems are behind it is just wrong. We are just having a pause in the action.”

Alternatively it is quite possible that the issues facing the US will overwhelm sentiment and position taking. That would be my best guess for the month of August. Being short Euros might look compelling, but it is a risky trade.The market is not positioned for that reality

What might the factors be that influence the outcome?

There is not going to be a crisis in the EU for the next 2-3 months. They have a lid on things.  A crisis could evolve in Europe if the bond markets unravel (again). If spreads widen and CDS is again a topic in the papers then the dollar would be in demand. But that is unlikely to happen with the EU defense mechanisms in place. They have mega billions available to buy bonds. They have been able to contain the crisis with a modest amount of intervention. Shorting Spanish bonds is no longer a sure winner. There is a big carry cost to being short. There is two-way risk. The world is “short” yield today. There seems to be a limitless demand for fixed income paper. This will pass at some point. But not for the foreseeable future.

There is a slow motion crisis evolving for the dollar in my view. There is a lack of viable options for the US. There are a number of possible outcomes:

A) The Fed and The Administration continue to pour on the gas. (QE-2 from Ben and a hefty $500b spending package AKA “the Krugman” option)

B) We could go to December 1st when the fiscal commission confirms what we already know (we are about 4-5 years away from an explosion) and a credible plan is put forward to increase taxes and reduce expenses.

C) We do essentially nothing on monetary or fiscal policy.

If we get A it will surely be bad for the dollar across the board. It would imply that there would be a financial penalty for owning dollars; our deficit would rise to over 10% of GDP. Where’s the beef for owning the buck in that scenario?

If we get B it will be in the form of, “We are going to tighten our belts, but not now. It would aggravate unemployment so we are going to get serious about our budget, but not until 2013.” Kiss of death for the dollar.

Some form of C is most likely. We continue with ZIRP as we now know it (with minor tweakage). No major new fiscal approaches are undertaken. The benefits of the 09 ARRA stimulus will fade. Some taxes will be raised. Dividends, capital gains and incomes over $250,000 will be taxed at higher levels. On paper the deficits will look smaller as a result (6-7% at best). But this will kill the economy. In this scenario long-term growth will fall to sub 1%. As that happens the deficits will explode on their own. Who wants dollars if this happens?

The FX markets rule the roost. Central banks can only watch and hope that things turn out as they wish. The Japanese and Swiss CBs tried to contain the fx market. They failed. In the midst of the EU chaos the ECB did not intervene. They knew their presence would just have attracted more sellers. It has been quite a few years now that the Fed has stuck its toes in the intervention waters. But that does not mean we should ignore what the CBs and Treasury types are signaling. I see evidence that the major European countries are moving in a direction that would be friendly to their currencies. The US is going down a decidedly different path. According to the WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath, QE-2 (Lite) will be announced next week. He gets his thoughts straight from Ben B., so the cards are being dealt.

Bernanke has a Bloomberg. He knows exactly where the EURDLR is trading. He is whooping for joy today. He wants a weak dollar more than anyone in the world. He is praying for inflation at this point. A weaker dollar is very helpful in achieving that. So when you weigh the sides of this, and if you’re looking to place a bet, always keep in mind that there is no one who has a hand on the levers that wants a strong dollar. They all want it weak.

We are seeing this play out already. Look at crude. Why is it breaking out? I think the dollar is driving it. I ask the question, What possible benefit could this bring to the US economy? Inventory profits for big oil is a good plan? Lining the pockets of those we import oil from helps America?  But it will make inflation go up, and headline inflation is what the Fed wants to see. We’ll just be poorer as a result.

The line “All 96 cent currencies go to par” was a reference to the Swiss Franc. It is currently worth 96.25 cents (1.0389). In my many years of watching this silliness I have observed that most things that get to 96 do go to 100. We shall see.


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>

Tyler Durden

Subject: Hypo Fails, All Other German, Portuguese, French Banks Pass Test

And we uncover that the German Landesbanks (the equivalent of the bankrupt
Spanish cajas) did their own stress tests. Time for the PPT to step in with
this pretext and soak up all offers. Totally pathetic BS.
Update 1: Somehow Bank of Ireland “passes” the test but needs over €2
billion in extra equity… uhm… WTF??? This is the point where the
audience rushes the stage and burns the theater down.
Update 2: 5 Spanish cajas, 1 German and 1 Greek banks are eliminated on
their quest to marry the US taxpayer. 84 other banks will soon be the
recipients of far more US taxpayer generosity. And with that the season
finale of the farce comes to a close.
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Hypo Fails, All Other German, Portuguese, French Banks Pass Test | zero hedge





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