The Master Blog
A personal blog with news and articles on issues relating to World Current Affairs, Money & Finance, Natural Resources, Latin America, the Middle East, and other Miscellanea from the web.Los hombres de Obama para América Latina | Infolatam: Noticias y Análisis de América Latina
EL INFORME
Los hombres de Obama para América Latina
Los exasesores de Bil Clinton en tema latinoamericanos vovlerán a tendrán gran influencia en la gestión de Obama
Los exasesores de Bil Clinton en tema latinoamericanos vovlerán a tendrán gran influencia en la gestión de Obama
Las claves:
* México y Brasil serán las prioridades de Barack Obama, según sus asesores.
* Los consejeros de Obama aseguran que habrá diálogo con Hugo Chávez.
Infolatam
Washington, 4 de noviembre de 2008
via Los hombres de Obama para América Latina | Infolatam: Noticias y Análisis de América Latina
China announces $586B stimulus plan – CNN.com
China announces $586B stimulus plan
* Story Highlights
* China announces $586 billion stimulus package in bid to protect economy
* Cabinet approves plan to invest money in infrastructure, social welfare
* Economic growth slowed to 9 percent in third quarter, lowest level in 5 years
* Analysts believe export growth may fall to zero in coming months
* Next Article in World Business »
Treasury secretary – breakingviews.com
Wonk us – Treasury secretary
Considered view
Context News
Tim Geithner has been president of the New York Federal Reserve since 2003.
After college, he worked for Kissinger Associates before joining the Treasury department in 1988. He became under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs in 1999.
In 2001, he joined the International Monetary Fund, where he worked until joining the New York Fed.
Simón Bolívar entra en órbita- EL UNIVERSAL
TECNOLOGÍA
Simón Bolívar entra en órbita
Adelantaron para hoy el lanzamiento, desde China, del satélite Simón Bolívar
El costo del satélite fue de 406 millones de dólares [AP/Howard Yanes]
Changzheng-3B. En castellano, Larga Marcha-3B. Ese es el nombre del vehículo lanzador que pondrá en órbita al satélite Simón Bolívar, equipo concebido para expandir el alcance de las telecomunicaciones en el territorio nacional y parte de Suramérica, y que marcará el inicio de la carrera espacial venezolana.
El espigado cohete que transportará al primer satélite geoestacionario nacional partirá hoy, si la meteorología lo permite, desde la localidad china de Xichang, 1.700 kilómetros al suroeste de Pekín.
El satélite se llama Venesat-1, nombre técnico del Simón Bolívar, y tiene una vida útil estimada de 15 años. Su costo fue de 406 millones de dólares, que fue financiado parcialmente por China como parte de los acuerdos de cooperación y transferencia tecnológica firmados por ambos gobiernos.
El lanzamiento del satélite fue establecido inicialmente para el 1 de noviembre por cumplirse ese día tres años de la firma del contrato de fabricación. Sin embargo, la ministra de Ciencia y Tecnología, Nuris Orihuela, dijo desde China, donde ya se encuentra, que efectivamente el lanzamiento estaba previsto para el día 29 a las 11:30 hora de Venezuela (que equivale a las 16.00 GMT), aunque el despegue depende de las condiciones meteorológicas.
Orihuela explicó posteriormente en declaraciones al canal Venezolana de Televisión que, en caso que las condiciones climáticas impidan el lanzamiento, se cuenta con un margen de días, entre el 29 y el 2 de noviembre, para realizarlo. La ministra agregó que todo está “a ciento por ciento de cumplimiento del cronograma” para la operación, que será transmitida por VTV y Telesur desde la base china, en la provincia de Sichuan.
En Venezuela, autoridades y expertos seguirán el lanzamiento desde dos estaciones terrenas, entre ellas la de Luepa, en el estado Bolívar, en la que se prevé la asistencia del presidente Hugo Chávez, posiblemente acompañado de su colega boliviano, Evo Morales, cuya visita fue anunciada por el jefe de Estado venezolano. La otra estación terrena venezolana está ubicada en el estado Guárico. Ambas estaciones son operadas por la telefónica estatal Cantv.
El jefe del proyecto satelital venezolano, Luis Holder, confirmó el adelanto del lanzamiento del satélite, siempre que se cumplan las condiciones del tiempo.
También señaló que la operación será seguida por 35 técnicos venezolanos capacitados en China, que operarán las dos estaciones de control levantadas en Guárico, centro del país, y Bolívar, al sureste, donde se encuentran, asimismo, 30 técnicos chinos.
Satélite socialista Aunque le han dado el mote de “satélite socialista”, técnicamente es como cualquier otro satélite. Lo que lo hace “socialista” es el uso.
El Gobierno ha manifestado que la intención del satélite es ser utilizado como plataforma tecnológica para llevar servicios de telecomunicaciones a las poblaciones tradicionalmente excluidas tanto de Venezuela como de otros países latinoamericanos. Principalmente, han hablado de ofrecer telemedicina y educación a distancia.
Así que mañana, si el cielo lo permite literalmente, el propulsor chino llevará al Venesat-1 hasta una altura de 36 mil kilómetros sobre la superficie terrestre. Una vez allí, el satélite, ya despojado de su vehículo lanzador, deberá ubicarse en la posición 78 grados de longitud oeste, un sector que, aunque queda fuera del espacio aéreo venezolano, se ubica sobre el ecuador, localidad suficiente para darle cobertura a Centroamérica, El Caribe y Suramérica.
Desde el despegue del Larga Marcha-3B hasta su inserción al espacio transcurrirán cerca de 25 minutos, tiempo en el que los vehículos espaciales habrán subido 200 kilómetros de altura. Desde esa altura, el Simón Bolívar iniciará su ubicación en distintas órbitas. Para ello, el personal en tierra deberá hacer algunas maniobras para impulsar el satélite hasta la posición 78 grados de longitud oeste.
Tan pronto Venesat-1 llegue a su destino, desde las estaciones terrenas en Venezuela (en los estados Guárico y Bolívar, ambas operadas por Cantv) se iniciarán pruebas y verificaciones funcionales de todos los sistemas. El proceso podrá tomar hasta 45 días. Concluido ese tiempo, el equipo ya estará disponible para prestar los servicios e integrarse a las redes terrestres, desde donde se potenciará la telemedicina y la teleeducación a través de entes gubernamentales.
Los 406 millones de dólares invertidos fueron destinados a la compra y desarrollo del satélite y sus partes, a la preparación del recurso humano y a la creación de infraestructura.
Los interesados en observar el lanzamiento podrán sintonizar hoy los canales Venezolana de Televisión y Telesur, alrededor de las 11.30 a.m. DRH
Score Another One for Putin – NYTimes.com
November 2, 2008
Play Magazine Preview
Score Another One for Putin
By ANDREW MEIER
ON A CHILL FRIDAY NIGHT IN OCTOBER with seconds left to play in the most anticipated hockey game of a young season, tied three goals apiece, Avangard Omsk, the pride of southwestern Siberia, and Atlant Mytishchi, an upstart from the Moscow suburbs, have players from seven countries on the ice — young men whose hometowns stretch from Canada to Kazakhstan. This is professional hockey in Russia now, at its best. And across the land of the old Soviet sports machine, whether the place is a rink, soccer pitch or basketball court, the scene repeats itself: few countries better reflect the newest face of globalization in sports. In Russia, foreigners round out the pro teams — legionery, legionnaires, they call them, with a mix of awe and disdain. In Omsk, the transcontinental gap matters little. With more than 10,000 fans screaming at the top of their lungs, communication is rendered moot. As the final seconds tick by, and both clubs express a level of hustle, stick work and hunger worthy of any match in North America, one man towers above all others: Jaromir Jagr. In Omsk, a black-collar city of 1.2 million souls, where the oil flares burn all night, marking the edge of town and the promise of the future, Jagr, the superstar who until midsummer reigned as the captain of the New York Rangers and a winner of nearly every trophy in the National Hockey League, now rules what he calls “the big ice.”
via Play Magazine Preview – Score Another One for Putin – NYTimes.com
More please- Will banks need to go for seconds?
Will banks need to go for seconds?
Will there be left overs to go around??
More please
breakingviews.com
When considering new Tier 1 capital ratios, financial institutions and their regulators tried to anticipate the reserves necessary to cushion against all sorts of horrible scenarios involving interest rates, inflation and economic growth. But it’s not clear those stress tests factored in a range of other late-breaking horrors. That could mean second helpings of capital will be in the offing.
First, there’s the meltdown in Iceland. The country’s collapsed banking system owes $46bn to lenders in 26 countries, it emerged on Thursday. German banks alone held $21bn of that debt. Iceland’s central bank chief reckons creditors will be paid just 10 cents in the dollar.
Next, there are the emerging markets fast becoming submerging markets. Take eastern Europe, where currencies and growth are tumbling. Banks from Austria, France, Germany and Italy dominate the region, after they flooded in for the post-communist boom. As the news worsens, bank subsidiaries there are likely to need recapitalising, putting yet further pressure on the parent groups. All of Asia isn’t immune, either.
Then there’s the hedge funds getting dramatically pruned. What started the year as a $1.9tr industry could be just a $1.3tr industry by year’s end after poor performance and investor withdrawals, Morgan Stanley reckons. That could chop bank revenue from hedge funds by 45%. Some of this may have been anticipated – but the pessimism seems to deepen by the day.
Finally, the default lines are being redrawn. Credit rating agencies keep expecting more and more companies will be unable to repay their debts. Standard & Poor’s now says there could be as many as 353 defaults by non-investment-grade, non-financial US borrowers from 2008-10. That would put the three-year cumulative default rate at 23%, the worst since 1981. There are likely to be savage defaults in Europe too.
This combination of calamitous events would easily tot up to at least another $100bn of losses for banks. Those that raised capital early could need more still. For the banks still mulling or resisting their first helpings, they’d better get their skates on.
jeffrey.goldfarb@breakingviews.com
Elbit acedes to U.K. request to cancel UAV trials in ‘occupied’ Golan – Haaretz – Israel News
Last update – 07:54 18/10/2008
Elbit acedes to U.K. request to cancel UAV trials in ‘occupied’ Golan
By Anshel Pfeffer and Zohar Blumenkrantz, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Elbit Systems, British Army
Elbit Systems canceled recently a series of trials for its unmanned drones that it had been planning to carry out in the Golan Heights on behalf of the British Army.
The tests were canceled after London objected to the trials being conducted at the Golan Piq airfield, across the Green Line, said security and aviation sources.
The Israeli company thus reached an agreement with the Airports Authority to run the trials at an airport in the northern city of Rosh Pina, despite fears they could be hazardous to area residents and the environment.
The UAVs are part of the British defense ministry’s Watchkeeper project – an 800 million pounds sterling project to provide the British Army with UAVs for all-weather, intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance use.
via Elbit acedes to U.K. request to cancel UAV trials in ‘occupied’ Golan – Haaretz – Israel News
“The market always does what it’s supposed to, but never when”
Richard russell’s Daily Comment
October 22, 2008 – Old market adage, “The market always does what it’s supposed to, but never when”
(this also applies to gold).
Question –With gold coins and bars literally being swept off the market, why isn’t gold moving higher?
Answer — The price of gold is not set by the supply and demand of gold coins. The price of gold is set by the active month (currently December) futures on the COMEX. Hedge funds who owned GLD have also been unloading GLD because they need cash, and their forced selling has tossed tons of actual gold on the market. Finally, foreign central banks have recently stepped up their sales of gold, and this too has pressured gold. But remember, the price and trend of gold is set by the futures and via the active month which is now the December gold futures.
Question — Can the government manipulate or reverse the primary trend of the stock market?
Answer — No, a primary trend, bull or bear, will always run to conclusion. All bull and bear markets end in exhaustion. Bull markets terminate when the bull element is exhausted and runs out of buying power. Bear markets end when the sellers are exhausted and when they have emptied their inventory of stocks to sell.
Right now, via the Lowry’s studies, I am watching to see if the Selling Pressure Index heads down on a trend basis. Its current height suggests that there’s still a huge amount of stock waiting to be sold, and this represents bearish pressure on the market. At some point, Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index will decline far enough so that we’ll figure that the inventory of stocks to be sold has been exhausted. At that point, we’ll look for a rush of buyers to enter the market.
Right now, the Fed and the treasury are attempting to halt the primary bear trend of the stock market and the economy. I’m afraid they are fated to fail, and I don’t care how many trillions of dollars the government spends. As a matter of fact, the government going so heavily into debt will probably only extend the life of the primary bear trend — while possibly sending the market lower than it would normally have fallen.
So the answer to the question is that this primary bear market, like all others before it, will fully express itself regardless of how anxious the US government is to reverse the primary bear trend. The bear will have his way, until the last group of bears has exhausted its desire to sell. That, in a nutshell, is the tragedy of a great bear market.
I note that a chorus of advisors (including Warren Buffett and Jim Cramer) are suggesting that we are “close to a bottom” and that this is the time to buy stocks. They may be correct, but as far as I’m concerned, the answer as to the bottom of this bear market “is blowin’ in the wind.” No one knows where the bottom is. Premature buying will only add to the losses suffered by investors. Buffett and Cramer are not doing us any favors with their premature optimism.
Question – Russell, you state that you think this bear market will “over-shoot” normal expectations on the downside. Why do you say that?
Answer — The US has been leveraging ever since World War II. We are now in a massive deleveraging process. This will affect every nook and cranny of the economy. We’ve been living in a prosperous world built on leverage and debt. I believe what this bear market is about is deleveraging and putting our economy back in a stable, conservative, non-debt, non-leveraged state. Leverage and borrowing has allowed the US to live beyond its means ever since WW II. That plus the world’s acceptance of US Federal Reserve Notes, which costs the US nothing to create. What I’m afraid of is that this bear market will ultimately attack the legitimacy and rationale of fiat money. That’s when the insurance and reality of gold will enter the picture.
Bear markets have a habit of forcing the world to face reality. For a central bank to “create wealth” via a computer defies reality, it is fantasy. That fantasy will ultimately be exposed. We will live to see the death of fiat money. Fiat money is the ultimate form of leverage — creating “wealth” out of nothing — this is pure fantasy.
Question – What about the hedge funds and private equity funds and buy-out funds?
Answer – Hedge funds tend to move fast. Many have rushed into cash, which is why they still survive. But the age of the hedge fund is coming to an end. The reason is that they can no longer borrow. Without leverage they can’t make the big money that made them so glamorous and their money managers so rich.
Question – Russell, what are your biggest worries in terms of the economy?
Answer – I grew up during the Great Depression. I saw how things can change in a few months, from the good times to the dark of economic night.
I was reading in our local newspaper how our shopping centers are changing. Mervyn’s, going out of business, is closing all its 11 stores in the San Diego area. Shoe Pavilion has seven stores in San Diego, all seven will be closed. Linen ‘n Things has eight stores in San Diego. Linen is on the edge of a financial cliff. Starbucks is cutting back on its locations in San Diego. In other words, there’s going to be a lot of retail space available in San Diego. The commercial real estate business will suffer. I already note an increasing number of “For Rent” signs in San Diego. A year ago it was hard to find an apartment or a condo for rent in La Jolla.
My next worry is unemployment. I think it’s going to surge later this year and into next year. I expect to see 9-10% unemployment in the US next year. It’s going to be difficult to find a job. This will raise the fear level in the US. People will cut way back on discretionary spending. Restaurants and coffee shops will suffer severely. One area of cut-backs will impact on the next. In other words, I do not rule out a depression. Frankly, I feel sorry for the next President, and I don’t believe the politicians or the nation have any idea of the hard times we’re heading for. The scarcest thing around will continue to be cash.
Question — Russell, you recommend that our stance should be 80% cash (T-bills) and 20% gold? Is that still your recommendation?
Answer – Yes, the cash is still cash. The gold is insurance against the death of the dollar. If your gold position of 20% drops by one-third in value, you’re still far ahead of most other investors and mutual funds.
I don’t want to scare you, but below is an up-dated P&F chart of the broad D-J Wilshire 5000 Index, which is denominated in dollars. At the peak it was $14.5 trillion. The low was $8.55 trillion — quite a loss so far.
Question — What about saving and income today?
Answer — Sadly, most Americans have no savings. And if they do have any savings, they can’t get a healthy income from it these days. The yield on the 91-day T-bill is below 2% today. Few stocks yield above 3%. The single best thing the average American can have today is a job, and a job that pays him enough to cover his daily expenses.
TODAY’S MARKET ACTION – My PTI was down 6 to 5871. The moving average was 5914. The PTI is bearish by 42 points.
The Dow was down 514.45 to 8519.21.
Nov. crude was down 5.43 to 66.75.
Transports were down 164.60 to 3601.74.
Utilities were down 22.46 to 348.10.
There were 536 advances on the NYSE and 2936 declines.
There were 9 new highs and 537 new lows.
Total NYSE volume was 6.2 billion shares.
S&P was down 58.27 to 896.78.
NASDAQ was down 80.93 to 1615.75.
My Big Money Breadth Index was down 10 to 732.
Dollar Index was up 1.44 to 85.86. Euro was down 2.61 to 128.53. Yen was up 3.04 to 102.70. Currency prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.
Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 3.618%. Yield on the long T-bond was 4.088%. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 1.01%.
CRB Commodity Index was down 13.87 to 369.03.
Dec. gold was down 38.00 to 730.00. Dec. silver was down 0.63 to 9.44. Oct. platinum was down 31.50 to 857.20. Metal prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.
GDX was down 3.40 to 18.49. HUI was down 32.86 to 168.34.
ABX was down 3.46, AEM down 8.70, ASA down 5.07 and NEM down 4.06.
My Most Active Stocks Index was down 13 to 118.
The VIX was up 16.20 to 69.31.
Late Notes — Another brutal day for the market, although it was not a 90% down-day. Transports closed at a new low — unconfirmed by the Industrials. Is this a hopeful hint? My PTI sank 6 points to 5871, only 2 points from a new low, casting a further shadow over the market.
The VIX close was a grotesque 69.66, suggesting that tomorow could be another hell-raiser. Evev the trader don’t know whate to make of this monster bear market, I mean it’s a sight to behold and historic!
