Posts Tagged ‘bonds’
>below are some excerpts from Jim Rogers interview:
Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs
Chinese economy:
There is some overheating and inflation
setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way
China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.
Europe:
I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt.
Following is an interview that The Daily Bell had with Jim Rogers:
Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs
05 April 2011 | http://www.commodityonline.com
Daily Bell: We've interviewed you before. Thanks for spending some time with us once again. Let's jump right in. What do you think of the Chinese economy these days?
Jim Rogers: There is some overheating and inflation, which they are wisely trying to cool – especially in urban, coastal real estate. They have huge reserves so will suffer less than others in any coming downturn.
Daily Bell: Is price inflation more or less of a problem?
Jim Rogers: More. At least they acknowledge inflation and are attacking it. Some countries still try denying there is inflation worldwide. The US is even pouring gasoline on these inflationary trends with more money printing instead of trying to extinguish the problem.
Daily Bell: Is China headed for a setback as you suggested last time we spoke?
Jim Rogers: Did I say a setback or a setback in real estate speculation? I think you will find it was the latter. Yes, the setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way.
Daily Bell: They are allowing the yuan to float upward. Good move?
Jim Rogers: Yes, but I would make it freely convertible faster than they are.
Daily Bell: Will that squeeze price inflation?
Jim Rogers: It will help.
Daily Bell: Why so many empty cities and malls in China? Does the government have plans to move rural folk into cities en masse?
Jim Rogers: That is a bit exaggerated. China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.
Daily Bell: Is such centralized planning good for the economy?
Jim Rogers: No. Centralized planning is rarely, if ever, good for the economy. But the kind of construction you are describing is at the provincial level – not the national level.
Daily Bell: The Chinese government is worried about unrest given what is occurring in the Middle East. Should they be?
Jim Rogers: We all should be. There is going to be more social unrest worldwide including the US. More governments will fall. More countries will fail.
Daily Bell: Are they still on track to be the world's biggest economy over the next decade?
Jim Rogers: Perhaps not that soon, but eventually.
Daily Bell: Any thoughts on Japan? Why haven't they been able to get the economy moving after 30 years? Will the earthquake finally jump-start the economy or is that an erroneous application of the broken-windows fallacy?
Jim Rogers: It has been 20 years. They refused to let people fail and go bankrupt. They constantly propped up zombie companies. The earthquake will help some sectors for a while, but there are serious demographic and debt problems down the road.
Daily Bell: The Japanese were going to buy PIGS bonds. What will happen now? Does that only leave China?
Jim Rogers: Obviously the Japanese have other things on their mind right now. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt. The thing that the world needs is for somebody to acknowledge reality and start taking haircuts.
>
Friday Look Ahead: Tech a Focus for Stocks Friday, as Gold Dazzles Investors
CNBC Executive Editor
Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.
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Both Oracle and Research in Motion reported strong earnings after Thursday’s bell. Separately, Texas Instruments boosted its $0.12 dividend by a penny and said it would buy back another $7.5 billion shares. All three stocks were higher in after-hours trading.
this is the CNBC video of Erin Burnett’s spat with Michael Pento of Euro Pacific Capital on the merits of US Treasuries.
Looks like someone doesn’t like it when you poke a hole in their fantasy world…
The best part of the video, however, is not that.
It is when the other guest, Joseph Balestrino of Federated Investors, says:
“Nothing is in a bubble when people want to buy it..”!!!
Go tell that to the guys that were buying the NASDAQ/loading up on tech stocks in January 2000 or (and, as they were probably the same old fools) buying/flipping homes in California, Florida, etc during 2007!!
Airtime: Tues. Sept. 7 2010 | :40:0 10 ET
http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1585891838/code/cnbcplayershare
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The MasterBlog
Private Equity Funds Lose Commitments From Pensions
Tony James, chief operating officer and president of The Blackstone Group LP. Photographer: Chip East/Bloomberg
Rogers Says World Needs Higher Interest Rates, Commodities Set to Advance – Bloomberg
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The MasterBlog
Lo agarra el chingo, o el sin nariz
Veneconomia.com
El Bono Global 2010 de $1,5 millardos vence el próximo 7 de agosto y, a
pesar de que faltan apenas 17 días. Según informan fuentes oficiales y no
oficiales, ni el Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) ni el Ministerio de
Finanzas han decidido cómo afrontar el pago a los inversionistas.
Una posibilidad es que se pague con cargo a las Reservas Internacionales de
la República. El problema con esta alternativa es que las reservas
operativas (también conocidas como líquidas) son de apenas $9,0 millardos.
Si se cancela el bono con cargo a las reservas Internacionales líquidas,
éstas se reducirían hasta $7,5 millardos, equivalente a menos de tres meses
de importaciones, nivel considerado como peligrosamente crítico.
La otra opción que le quedaría al Ejecutivo sería emitir un nuevo bono, para
sustituir al Global 2010, a punto de vencer. El problema con ello es que, en
la actualidad, los inversionistas internacionales no tienen ningún interés
en adquirir papeles venezolanos. Por lo cual el costo de una nueva emisión
podría ser inaceptable, por lo alto.
Una muestra de ello es que el Bono Global 2027 de la República se ha estado
negociando para rendir 14-15% hasta su vencimiento. Y el Bono PDVSA 2014 se
negocia para rendir hasta 20%. Esto se contrasta dramáticamente con la
situación de la deuda de Grecia, que acaba de flotar una nueva emisión con
un rendimiento de tan solo el 4%.
Otro indicio de lo difícil que sería colocar una nueva emisión lo da la
empresa CMA de Londres, especializada en análisis de crédito, que estima que
la probabilidad de que Venezuela caiga en una moratoria dentro de los
próximos cinco años es del 58,7%, el más alto porcentaje de riesgo de todos
los países analizados, y muy por encima de Grecia (55,6%) y Argentina
(47,9%).
Otra evidencia de la baja estima en que el mercado internacional tiene a los
papeles venezolanos lo dan los bonos que por $700 millones colocó CITGO en
junio. A pesar que los bonos estaban respaldados con garantía hipotecaria
sobre las refinerías de CITGO en los Estados Unidos, la emisión salió al
mercado con un cupón extraordinariamente alto, del 11,5%. Peor, los
analistas sugieren que el cupón hubiese sido del 20%, si no fuera por la
garantía dada por propiedades en un país donde se cumplen las leyes.
Por ahora, los expertos revolucionarios del Ministerio de Finanzas y del
Banco Central pareciera que están deshojando la margarita para ver cuál de
las dos únicas salidas que tienen por delante impacta menos en la
continuidad de la hegemonía parlamentaria y en la continuidad del proyecto
comunista de Chávez.
El grave problema es en que haga lo que haga el Gobierno, el gran
perjudicado será el país.
. Disponible en inglés en: www.veneconomy.com a partir de las 4:00 p.m.